UK election reporter Liam Bateman writes.
Polling in the constituencies is showing some very shocking results for the parties. According to polling I have seen, over forty seats in England are expected to swing to Labour, with no swings to the Lib Dems and at least ten to stay or swing to the Tories. And contrasting these with target seats is all giving us a glance at the chance of achieving these goals. Both the Tories and the Lib Dems are targeting the Labour safe seat of Hampstead and Kilburn, the seat for which Glenda Jackson, who proudly denounced the Thatcher era in the Commons, represents. However, according to polling, her Labour successor isn’t going to be losing the seat anytime soon. Also, the Lib Dems are once again going after Chesterfield, a seat once held by Labour legend Tony Benn until he left the Commons in 2001. Labour took the seat from the Lib Dems again in 2010 and I have no doubt that Labour will keep it.
But one poll has me on the edge of my seat. South Thanet has been a huge focus for the election as this seat is where controversial UKIP leader Nigel Farage is standing next month. Taken by Labour in 1997, it swung back to the Tories in 2010. All recent polling had shown that Farage would win in the next election, but no one poll has people thinking otherwise.
The poll was conducted by the Daily Mail. Now usually, I don’t take much notice of the Daily Mail, for reasons which can be explained in the video below.
But this poll has brought a degree of uncertainty to the campaign. The current poll gives the Tory candidate a 32% support with Farage behind on 30%. Labour’s Scott Robie is on 28%. This is a huge shock for a seat that a week ago, I would easily believe would fall to UKIP, but it seems the race will be closer than originally thought.
This election is crucial for Farage’s career. If he doesn’t win, he has vowed to resign as the leader of the UKIP. If the Tories held the seat or if it swung to Labour, it would derail any hope for UKIP’s growth as a political movement.
But one poll cannot decide the fate of a seat. It could be still be anyone’s game, but I hope and pray that Labour will wipe that smarmy grin of Nigel Farage’s face and stop the insurgence of the closest thing Britain has to a Fascist party.