Poll shows swing against National in Northland is colossal.

Yesterday, a calm and collected Prime Minister told media that Winston Peters needed “more than a bus” to win the Northland by-election and that Peters had “zero chance” of taking the seat.

According to tonight’s 3 News Reid-research poll, NZ First won’t just come close, they’ll win – and by a strong majority.

The swings away from National are dire. At the previous election in 2014 Mike Sabin won 52% of the candidate vote, the results for his proposed successor Mark Osbourne show he’ll win just 30% of the vote. A colossal 22 point swing away from National, a fair number of which, 3 News Political editor Patrick Gower says, are, or were, National voters.

John Key’s presumption National would romp home without a fully-funded campaign, no sweat, no labour, appears to have angered many.

3 News political reporter Tova O’Brien asked a collective of Northlanders gathered to hear Winston’s speech outside a Four-Square supermarket if they had a message for the out-of-touch Prime Minister. “Give in” and “Get stuffed” were among the simple, short, and angry responses.

The poll shows support for Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime at 16%, down 9 points on her 2014 candidate result, showing a fair amount of Labour supporters are voting strategically to oust National.

Prime will be focusing on roads, Northland’s climbing unemployment, flat economy, and dwindling population, which haven’t received an upgrade in nearly a decade.

Peters focus is more vague, but will resonate; “Send them a message”.

“Them” needs no explanation.

An overwhelming majority of voters are furious over National’s handling of the Mike Sabin affair, and this has partially played a role in what could be one of the largest and most devastating swings against National in it’s history.

Winston Peters, New Zealand First 35.0% (+35.0)
Mark Osbourne, National 30.0% (-22.0)
Willow-Jean Prime, Labour 16.0% (-9.0)

Bennett Morgan. 


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