LIVE BLOG: Queensland election


Finn Jackson prediction:
45 LNP, 43 Labor, 2 Other/Independents.
Bennett Morgan prediction: 
48 LNP, 34 Labor.

Queensland heads to the polls to decide the next government.

– The Liberal National Party currently holds power by 78 seats to Labor’s 9.
– Labor require a swing of 12% to win the election.
– Premier Campbell Newman tipped to lose seat of Ashrgrove.
– Polls suggest LNP victory of 52% to 48%.

12.44am: Sky News: We won’t know for some days who will take government. Finn Jackson; “I’m pretty sure this is the shock result of the year.”.

12.36am: Campbell Newman; “My political career is over”.

12.32am: Finn Jackson: “We knew this was going to be a nailbiter. I didn’t expect it to be a fingerchewer though.”
Bennett Morgan:
“Labor is going to get over 45 seats tonight but postal votes and minor party talks will decide the winner.”

BREAKING: Campbell Newman arrives at LNP HQ.

12.31am: Labor will win tonight, but postal votes could get the Liberal National Party across the line.

12.27am: Liberal National lead the Far-right One Nation Party in Lockyer by 54% to 46%. Just over 70% counted.

12.16am: Bennett Morgan: “I think we’ll wake up tomorrow to a Labor government. There is one Independent that will go with them for sure, and they could still yet claim a majority. I’m now confident of that. This is humiliating for the Lib Nats, but things are changing fast tonight”.

Finn Jackson: “I’m saying Labour on 44/45 seats. 2 Others, who could potentially support the ALP in the event of a minority.”

12.15am: ALP, once again, one seat from victory. Labor (44) LNP (39).
ABC prediction: ALP 46, LNP 40. 

12.06am: Sky News says it’s unlikely we’ll know the results tonight. 61.4% counted.

12.00am: Has the ABC called the election for Labor? 45 seats predicted for ALP, 41 for LNP. 

11.55pm: Bennett Morgan: “The Lib Nats have risen from 19 to 30 in the same period Labor has barely moved. This is starting to lean towards a very narrow win for the LNP. Labor has not achieved, yet, the 11.9% swing to secure power”.

11.46pm: KAP holds its seats comfortably.

11.42pm: Seats projections re-freshed: Labor 43, Liberal National 38.

Sky News Labor supporting panelist says it’s “too hard” for him to see Labor taking government.
Seats: Labor 39, LNP 30.

11.32pm: Bennett Morgan:
“New South Wales election in March. Before the Liberals were expected to win easily, but after this and Abbott looking like such a loser I think Labor could win that too.”

11.28pm BREAKING: Campbell Newman concedes seat of Ashgrove, calls Labor candidate to congratulate. Seat numbers LOCKED at 40 – 39 (ALP).

11.24pm: Finn Jackson: “I’m unsure now. I think they’ll both have more than forty seats. And whoever wins, it’ll either be with a one or two seat majority, or else a minority Labour government, missing out by one seat.”

11.22pm: Liberal National comeback. ABC says 40 for Labor, 39 for LNP.
UPDATED (8.15pm):
Sky News reports exit poll suggests most voters rate health as most important issue (77%).
A majority of voters believe the LNP will win (55%).

UPDATED (8.22pm):
SHOCK Channel 9 exit poll puts Labor on 54%, LNP on 46%.

UPDATED (8.30pm):
One hour to polls close and first results come in. Election on a knife-edge.

UPDATED (8.32pm):
9 News predicts Labor to win in landslide result.
8.39pm observer comment, MORGAN: “If true the Labor team must have been working hardout at the ballot booths wooing every last vote” .

UPDATED (8.44pm):
“Barely a glimmer of hope” Newman will retain seat, reports Sky News.

UPDATED (8.55pm):
5 minutes till counting starts.

UPDATED (9.04pm):
Counting begins across Queensland. Sky News says LNP will “scrape” a victory but will have to find a new premier as Campbell Newman will lose seat.

UPDATED (9.15pm)
Media shut out of Liberal National Party HQ, up to 7 seats in Far-North Queensland expected to go back to Labor.

UPDATED (9.25pm)
First results coming in; seat of Callide. 0.5% counted.
Liberals drawing first blood (leading two-three seats).

UPDATED (9.29pm)
New Zealand politicians respond to initial results; Iain Lees-Galloway, Labour MP says on Facebook “Queensland election looking like a cliffhanger.”.

UPDATED (9.35pm).
Numbers suggest Labor SURGING in Ipswich (up 28% – early). ACT Labor release humour-filled election night ‘bingo’

UPDATED (9.49pm)
10% swings to Labor in Toowoomba North and South electorates.

UPDATED (9.53pm)
1% counted in Ashgrove. 15% swing to Labor. It’s all over for Campbell Newman as an MP.

UPDATED (10.00pm) Seats: Lib Nat (3) Labor (1). 
Sky News releases graphic of Ashgrove.
“Newman is stuffed” says Lib Nat insider.

UPDATED (10.06pm) Seats: Lib Nat (4), Labor (4), Other (1).
First time since the 1930s a government has been on track to win, but leader expected to be out of parliament.

10:07pm: Lib Nat (5), Labor (4), Other (1).
10:09pm: Lib Nat (6), Labor (5), Other (2).

UPDATED (10.10pm) Seats: Lib Nat (8), Labor (6), Other (3).
Sky News suspects Lib Nats to win, 11% swing to Labor nationwide (7% counted).

10.13pm: Lib Nat (11), Labor (9), Other (2).

UPDATED (10.16pm): LABOR AHEAD, Lib Nat (13), Labor (14), Other (3).

10.17pm: Lib Nat (13), Labor (16), Other (3).

10.18pm: Lib Nat (16), Labor (17), Other (4).

UPDATED (10.22pm):
Sky News panel says not to “rule out” Labor minority government.

10.23pm: Lib Nat (15), Labor (25), Other (6).

10.28pm: Lib Nat (19), Labor (27), Other (4).

Bennett Morgan, comment 10.30pm: “What a massive change in expectations. We began the night suspecting Liberal National to win but now it is looking more and more likely Labor will pull off a remarkable win; even if it means cutting a deal with the KAP; which the LNP warned against”.

INTERVAL: Next update on seats at 11pm. Watch Sky News live coverage here: >> SKY NEWS LINK <<

10.54pm Blog returns for BREAKING result: ABC has Labor just one seat short of government.

10.57pm: Sky News suspects 55% for LNP, 45% for Labor. 6% swing to Labor.

10.59pm: Sky News says post-Prince Phillip debacle polling out tomorrow, DEVASTATING for Tony Abbott.


Bennett Morgan: “This is getting quite intense now. They’re calling it as a hung parliament which will benefit Labor. This has been a remarkable comeback for Labor. Utterly remarkable.”
Finn Leslie calls it as: Labour 45/46, others/KAP 1/2, LNP 43.
11.16pm: Even LNP members saying now the best case scenario is a hung parliament. “it’s looking like a Labor win” – Sky News.

11.19pm: Sky News sees two possible outcomes. Small majority government for LNP or minority government for Labor.



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