ALP surging in Victoria, lag in New South Wales.


Bennett Morgan reports:

A new set of Roy Morgan poll results has found Tony Abbott’s Liberal/National coalition leads comfortably in just one state; New South Wales. The poll results for the territories were not recorded.

It comes in a week where questions have risen over who will lead Tony Abbott’s Liberal Party in the 2016 election. As it currently stands, Bill Shorten’s Labor Party would win with a similar majority to what Mr. Abbott holds now.

The ALP leads by a country mile in Victoria, which turned red at the 2014 election. If a state election were held there today Premier Daniel Andrews could expect a whopping 45% of the first preference vote; that’s 59% of the two party preference vote. The Liberal/National coalition under new leader Matthew Guy would manage 35% of first preferences; 41% in the two-party. The Greens, who won two seats in the lower house, would win 11.5%. The minor right-wing Family First and Country Alliance parties poll 1.5% and 1.0% respectively. Mr. Andrews is the preferred Premier by 66% of the public to Matthew Guy’s debut rating of 33.5%.

Some have even suggested Mr. Andrews should be a future federal Labor Party leader.

Meanwhile the Liberal/National party is at its height in New South Wales.

Roy Morgan reports on the two upcoming elections: (NSW and QLD):

NEW SOUTH WALES: L-NP would win the Election easily

2PP: L-NP 54% (down 1% since November 21-24, 2014) cf. ALP 46% (up 1%).

Primary vote: L-NP 44.5% (up 0.5%); ALP 35% (up 2.5%), Greens 11% (down 1.5%), Christian Democrats 1.5% (down 1%), Palmer United Party 1% (down 0.5%), Family First 0.5% (down 1%) and Independents/ Others 6.5% (up 1%).

Better Premier: Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v Luke Foley (ALP):
Mr. Baird 69% (down 1%) cf. Mr. Foley 31% (up 1%); Lead to Mr. Baird: 38% (down 2%).

New South Wales real unemployment is now 10.4% (up 1.1% since October-November 2014) and under-employment is 10.7% (up 1.5%). This means total New South Wales unemployment & under-employment is 21.1% (up 2.6%). (Interviewed November & December 2014).

New South Wales State Election is scheduled for March 28, 2015.


UEENSLAND: Election would be too close to call

2PP#: LNP 50.5% (unchanged since November 21-24, 2014) cf. ALP 49.5% (unchanged).

Primary vote: LNP 39.5% (up 0.5%), ALP 37% (up 0.5%), Greens 10% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party 4% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 3.5% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 6% (down 1.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Campbell Newman (LNP) v Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP):
Ms. Palaszczuk 51.5% (down 1%) cf. Mr. Newman 48.5% (up 1%); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 3% (down 2%).

Queensland real unemployment is now 12.7% (up 1.8% since October-November 2014) and under-employment is 10.3% (up 1%). This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 23% (up 2.8%). (Interviewed November & December 2014).

Queensland State Election is being held on Saturday January 31, 2015.


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