Bennett Morgan reports for UK 2015.
A fresh batch of poll results have indicated a major shift in voting intentions across the UK, most notably in Wales. Labour, The Tories and Plaid Cymru are all relatively unchanged from their 2010 results, but UKIP is surging. The party, led by Nigel Farage, has been accused of being England-centric in the past.
National polls indicate UKIP’s national standing is on about 16%, however recent polls have seen them drop to disappointing lows, on occasion polling as lowly as the massively unpopular Liberal Democrats.
In Wales UKIP continues to surge off the back of the party’s Euro election win last year, recording a new high of 18%.
That’s up from their 2% result in 2010.
Elsewhere Labour is right back to where it started from on 36%, as is Plaid Cyrmu on 11%. The Tories are down 3 to 23%, The Liberal Democrats are down 15 to 5%, and the Greens have risen from 0.4% to 5%.
In England Cameron’s Conservatives ride ahead of any opposition and well ahead of Miliband’s Labour Party recording 37% support. That’s down from their 11 point lead in 2010. UKIP is up from 3.5% to 17%, The Lib Dems are down to a glum 7% standing, well down on their 24% 2010 result. The Greens are up 7 points to 8% and are expected to pick up multiple seats in the South of England.
Labour continues to sizzle and burn in Scotland, miles behind the Scottish National Party who poll 43% to Labour’s 26%. The Tories are down to 13%, off the back of their 16.7% result in 2010. The Lib Dem drop continues here, with the party down to 6% from it’s 19% result in 2010. UKIP’s surge doesn’t reach Scotland with the party on 7%, (up 6.3), and the Greens are struggling to gain much ground on 4% (up 3.3).
In Northern Ireland the right-wing Democratic Unionist Party polls narrowly ahead of the left-wing nationalist Sinn Fein, polling 26% to 24% respectively.The Miliband-backed SDLP are down 1 from their 2010 result to 15%, and the Cameron-backed Ulster Unionist Party is down 3 to 16%.
Meanwhile in London Labour has extended its lead of 2.7% at the last election to 10% now.